As you surely know by now, we've recently had our first of what will hopefully be many trades involving top-ten picks. The Atlanta Falcons have agreed to send backup quarterback Matt Schaub and the 10th pick in the draft to the Texans for the 8th pick in the draft, this year's second round pick (39th overall) and next year's second round pick. While it's not a huge shakeup to the draft order, it certainly has ramifications for both teams, which we'll look at now:
From the Texans' perspective...
Clearing out David Carr
Houston has finally unchained itself from David Carr, which is clearly what's best for both parties. Carr has never had adequate talent around him, specificially on the offensive line, and he was running on empty in terms of confidence this last season. He'll have a chance to sign on somewhere else (can we just start printing up the Carr Raiders jerseys now?), and get a fresh start - though probably as a backup, unless he does sign with the Raiders.
Finding the quarterback of the future?
The Texans replace Carr with a 25-year old former 3rd round pick whose career stat line reads: 84 completions, 161 attempts (52.2%), 1,033 yards, 6 touchdowns, 6 interceptions (69.2 QB rating). Not exactly stirring numbers, but the move is all about potential. Schaub has looked good the last couple preseasons, and for two years now has been regarded as a starting-caliber quarterback. In fact, there was definitely a school of thought that believed the Falcons would be better with him starting than with Mike Vick. Schaub is a pure pocket passer who lacks the mobility of David Carr, and is no better than equal in terms of arm strength. But Houston is banking on him bringing a fresh mindset to the team, and surpassing Carr in terms of decision-making and leadership of the offense.
A slight move down in round one
Honestly, the move down from pick 8 to pick 10 has little impact on the Texans. Sure they'll miss out on two prospects that they otherwise would have had a shot at, but Houston has so many needs that they're guaranteed to find a top-quality player who can fill one anyway. With Ahman Green signed to a large deal, the team wasn't looking to draft Adrian Peterson anyway even if he did slide to 8; and while it does lower their chance of acquiring LaRon Landry, there will still be plenty of quality guys on the board. Look for one or more players from the group of Alan Branch, Amobi Okoye, Leon Hall, Levi Brown, and Patrick Willis to be there when Houston drafts - all of which they could use.
A pair of second rounders gone
This is where I think the Texans really paid dearly. As mentioned, Houston has a ton of needs, and losing this and next year's second round pick is a substantial blow. Remember, Houston saved its draft last season by selecting instant-star DeMeco Ryans in round two, and they won't have the opportunity to repeat that success this or next season.
From the Falcons' perspective
A vote of confidence in Vick...
This move puts the franchise in Michael Vick's hands - again. It serves to squash all the rumors about him playing some running back or receiver, and cements him as the team's quarterback of both the present and future. Perhaps more importantly, it shows that new coach Bobby Petrino is committed to developing Vick and keeping him installed as the team's QB.
...but the insurance policy is gone.
Of course, a whole lot could go wrong with this move. For one, Mike Vick runs more than any other quarterback in the NFL, and no matter what offense Petrino installs, you know Vick will be taking off with regularity next season. And each time he does, the franchise will be in the balance, because there's no Plan B anymore. Remember, Vick isn't exactly the most durable guy in the world, which we all seem to have forgotton after he got through 2006 healthy. Second, even if healthy, what if Vick fails to take the team to the playoffs again? This is a squad that certainly should be making the post-season in the weak NFC, and if Vick doesn't make any progress this year, then the organization will be in a very bad spot.
A hop up in round 1...
Atlanta has fewer needs than Houston, and therefore the move up is more important to them than the move down is to Houston. This gives Atlanta an outside shot of landing Adrian Peterson - who they almost certainly would draft - and makes it a virtual certainty that LaRon Landry will be available. The Falcons' safety situation was a nightmare in 2006, and Landry would make a big immediate impact. In fact, I believe that Landry is the target of this move up - though we're still a long way from draft day.
...and a couple bonus picks!
Always nice to have additional second rounders, and now Atlanta is rich with them, having two this year and two next. These selections could be used to address the secondary, offensive and defensive lines, and of course, backup quarterback.
A trade-up in the works?
There's already some thought that Atlanta is actually loading up to make a move further up the draft board. According to the pick value chart, the move from 10th to 8th is a 200 point upgrade (1,300 to 1,500), while the 39th pick is worth 520. Throw in the Falcons' original second round pick (44th overall - worth 470 points), and they've got 2,490 points worth of ammo this season (and that's not including next year's picks). That's enough to theoretically move up to the #3 spot, where the Browns could very well be looking to move down. For example, let's say that the Raiders take JaMarcus Russell first, and the Lions go with Brady Quinn second. With both QB's off the board, Cleveland would probably be open to trade offers, and the move down to 8 would still allow them to get an elite prospect. Meanwhile, Atlanta would sprint to the podium with the name of the one player that they (and most other teams) covet: Calvin Johnson.
Overall Impressions
I like this trade for both teams. With David Carr, it's highly unlikely that Houston would have ever gotten out of the rut they've been in. Acquiring Schaub, while risky, provides the franchise with a new hope and a new direction, and allows them to get a fresh start. Before this move, I would've given Houston a 5% chance of making the playoffs in 2007; now I give them at least a 25% chance. From Atlanta's perspective, all their eggs are back in Mike Vick's basket, but at least this eliminates the distraction of people calling for Schaub to start. They got good value in the trade, and I'll applaud it even more if they can swing a deal up to get Calvin Johnson. |
